In uncertain situations, people follow the crowd. We adopt new behaviors and beliefs when we see people we know, trust, or admire adopt them first. This is social proof. We also adopt behaviors and beliefs when we feel that the community around us expects us to. This is social pressure.
The Inflation Reduction Act signed into law last year by President Joe Biden is the most promising package of climate policy investments in United States history. The new law provides $390 billion in incentives for purchasing electric vehicles, installing rooftop solar, buying heat pumps, weatherizing homes, and an array of other climate-friendly behaviors. But to paraphrase the adage, if the government cuts a $1,500 check for a heat pump but no one claims it, does it make an impact?
The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act is no doubt historic. But realizing the law’s potential to reduce emissions ultimately depends on people taking action; in this case, taking advantage of the incentives it offers. So how do we make sure it and other climate policies achieve their goals? How do we truly “win the win” this new law represents?
If the government cuts a $1,500 check for a heat pump but no one claims it, does it make an impact?
In our research at Rare, we found that the strongest unique predictor of intention to take high-impact climate action is whether a person believes that other people are already taking that action. Beliefs about climate change, political orientation, and other demographics show inconsistent and largely insignificant effects. Financial incentives can push people over the goal line, but it’s social influence that puts them into scoring position.
But here’s the problem: Americans drastically underestimate the level of support those around them have for making changes. Take solar panels. Rare’s research found that nearly 6 in 10 Americans think that people should install solar panels on their homes. However, when asking those same Americans about what others believe, they estimate that only 3 in 10 people think other people should install solar panels. People perceive they’re more alone in believing more people should take climate-positive action than they really are. And if people don’t realize that those around them hold positive views of these climate actions, they are less likely to take climate action.
This gap between what Americans think others think about taking climate actions and what others actually think is a form of pluralistic ignorance we have taken to calling a “normative bubble.” And if we are going to build critical masses of people adopting climate-friendly behaviors and normalizing them, we need to pop it.
We found that the strongest unique predictor of intention to take high-impact climate action is whether a person believes that other people are already taking that action.
In some ways, just measuring this gap may enable change. That is why we recently launched the Climate Culture Index, an attempt to systematically measure the gap between what Americans believe should be done about climate change compared to what they think other Americans believe should be done.
To move people toward climate action, we need to understand the psychosocial motivations and predictors that drive behavioral adoption. Beyond normative beliefs highlighted above, the Climate Culture Index surfaces and begins to track other relevant motivations. For example, “consideration”—whether a person has considered taking a particular climate action in the recent past—is one of the motivations that we are keen on tracking. An increase in consideration scores could indicate that a growing number of Americans have thought about taking climate action and may be especially primed for a behavioral intervention that helps address barriers to adoption.
Other routine polling studies often stop at measuring reported intention, creating a gap in our understanding of Americans’ perceptions of climate change. The index begins to address this gap by drawing attention to intermediate levers and predictors that are often prerequisites for a person to take action.
The index was informed by a cross-sectional survey of almost 2,000 U.S. adults, quota sampled to match the US census in age, sex, ethnicity, and household income. Our sample was additionally weighted to be representative of the population in Hispanic origin, household income, and the segments of Global Warming’s Six Americas, as identified by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.
If people don’t realize that those around them hold positive views of these climate actions, they are less likely to take climate action.
Ultimately, we hope that the index will provide valuable insights for stakeholders like media and government, while empowering climate activists, advocates, and allies to design behaviorally informed interventions more likely to move people along the journey from inaction to action on the highest-impact climate behaviors that individuals can take for themselves—like eating a more plant-based diet, reducing food waste, or contracting for green energy. By knowing where the public is, we can strategize how we can build a critical mass where we need to be, shifting the culture, and driving large-scale change.
With the success of the Inflation Reduction Act riding on the proliferation of electric vehicles, solar panels, and heat pumps, social proof and social pressure are now critical levers for change in America. If Americans see others are moving toward these climate positive behaviors, they’ll consider whether they should to. If they sense others expect them to adopt the behaviors, they will fear being left behind if they do not. A single person choosing a plant-based burger, buying an electric car, or installing rooftop solar panels will not solve the climate crisis. But a critical mass of people making individuals changes creates the social pressure that fuels systems change.
We all agree that climate change requires systems change. But systems change faster when society changes first.
