Two years ago, our team at Rare launched the Climate Culture Index, a research initiative designed to track Americans’ states of mind relative to key climate-friendly behaviors. Back then, we found a big disparity between the level of support Americans had for these behaviors and how much they thought other Americans supported them.
We called this a “normative bubble” and suggested that it could be popped by normalizing these behaviors, which include reducing food waste, adopting home solar, and driving an EV. Normalization would then lead to greater adoption of the behaviors.
Today, though, there is cause for concern. Our updated research shows that the bubble is the same size as it was two years ago.
Our 2022 results showed that Americans dramatically underestimated the level of support amongst their peers for climate-positive behaviors. For example, nearly 6 in 10 Americans believed people should install solar panels on their homes. However, only 3 in 10 of those same respondents believed that most others agree with them.
People think they’re more alone in supporting climate-positive action than they really are.
The takeaway? People think they’re more alone in supporting climate-positive action than they really are. That’s a problem because our research shows that the strongest unique predictor of intention to take high-impact climate action is whether a person believes that other people are already taking that action.
Popping this normative bubble is the key to taking us out of the early adopter phase for many impactful climate behaviors.
Surprising consensus in support of climate policy
Our 2024 Climate Culture Index retested Americans’ perception and adoption of the same seven behaviors we’ve been tracking since 2021—adopting home solar, installing heat pumps, driving an EV, reducing food waste, eating less beef, and purchasing carbon offsets. But this time we expanded it to look at support for policies related to each of those actions. We looked at support and perceptions of support related to policies that were identified because they were on the margin—that is, public support could be critical to influencing the enactment of the policies.
For the 2024 Index, we surveyed a representative sample of Americans, as well as representative samples from two cities, Boston and Denver, using quotas for age group, gender, and ethnicity. The design allowed for meaningful comparisons of climate attitudes and beliefs at the national and city levels, enabling the exploration of regional variations in the index.
Consistent with our earlier findings, a sizable majority of Americans support policies that incentivize climate-positive choices. For example, the index shows that more than 80 percent of respondents support policies around home energy choices like cash rebates for installing home solar panels, and more than 70 percent support policies providing rebates for purchasing or leasing electric vehicles.
Yet Americans do not know there is such widespread support for climate policy among their neighbors and fellow residents. Across the seven climate solutions the Index studied, there was an average gap of 20 percentage points between actual and perceived support for policies, meaning that Americans underestimate how many others support these climate policies.
Normative bubbles are deeply embedded in all aspects of society, not just climate. Humans are hardwired to act in ways that our communities expect us to act, and it’s in our nature to strive for social cohesion with our peers. This is known as social influence. When it comes to social influence and climate, if people don’t realize that those around them hold positive views of climate actions, they are less likely to take climate action themselves.
Declining self-efficacy around climate action
These normative bubbles around our climate behavior are compounded by another startling finding from the 2024 Index. Our research found that people are also losing confidence in their own abilities to take climate-friendly actions. For example, confidence to install solar panels and own an electric car saw some of the biggest drops in efficacy since 2023 (around 7 percentage points, on average).
While most people support climate-friendly behaviors in theory, fewer feel confident in their ability to take action. This decline in self-efficacy is concerning because confidence is a known driver of real-world adoption. This pattern interacts with the normative bubbles we discussed earlier—when people lack confidence in their own abilities and don’t see others adopting climate behaviors, they’re doubly hesitant to act.
So what might be behind this drop in confidence? One possible explanation is increased exposure to challenges involved with adopting these behaviors. As climate solutions become more common, people may be hearing more about the hassles involved—long wait times at fast chargers, supply chain and permitting issues with solar, or uncertainty among contractors about incentives for heat pumps. What once seemed like a straightforward switch may now feel like a bigger lift.
At the same time, financial and logistical barriers can feel daunting. While incentives exist, many may find them complicated to access. Sticky inflation and economic uncertainty over the last couple of years may have also shifted people’s priorities, making big purchases—like an EV or home upgrades—feel less feasible at the moment.
Breaking the cycle of inaction
One worry is that these factors combined could create a “cycle of inaction.” If people feel like an action is too hard, they’re less likely to even try. Without trying, they miss out on firsthand experience that could build confidence over time. But the opposite is also true: When people get started with action, it builds confidence and momentum in their lives, and influences others to act on their beliefs as well.
If people don’t realize that those around them hold positive views of climate actions, they are less likely to take climate action themselves.
For those working on climate policy and adoption, you can help people rebuild their confidence by breaking actions into smaller steps, providing clear and accessible guidance, and creating social reinforcement through visible adoption from their neighbors and peers. Programs that offer hands-on trials—such as EV test drives, guided solar installations, or home energy consultations—can make actions feel more achievable. Normalizing these behaviors in media and peer networks also plays a role, as people feel more capable when they see others like them succeeding. Making climate actions easier and more familiar builds confidence and encourages action.
We can build this momentum by continuing to normalize climate-friendly behaviors in order to pop our normative bubbles. When we acknowledge and work to close the gap between perceived and actual support for climate-supportive behaviors and policies, we make taking action easier for everyone.
